Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Palestino are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Gremio are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 0 of those 10 games and 0 passed 2.5 goals, and Gremio hold a 14.1-point power-rating edge (39.6 v 53.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40