Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Palestino are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cuiaba are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Cuiaba hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (39.6 v 59.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.2% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20