Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Palestino are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 20.4-point power-rating edge (39.6 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 23% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40