Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colo Colo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Palestino 1-1 Colo Colo
Original prediction
Colo Colo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.05 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.3% | 23.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 52.8% | 51.6% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Colo Colo
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Colo Colo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalestinoDWLWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Colo ColoWLWWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PalestinoColo Colo
52.8Attack69.4
51.4Defence62.5
51.4Form75.0
52.8Power69.7
1.21xG1.95