Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Palestino are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Bolívar are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolívar hold a 31.2-point power-rating edge (39.6 v 70.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60