Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Palermo 5-2 Mantova
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 56.8% | 43.5% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.9% | 26.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.84 | 19.3% | 29.8% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalermoWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MantovaWWWLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PalermoMantova
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power88.7
1.55xG1.32