Paksvs
MTK Budapest
COMPLETEDHungary · NB I · 10/10/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paks · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paks 3-0 MTK Budapest
Original prediction
Paks
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.7% | 39.9% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.9% | 26.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.4% | 33.8% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Paks
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Paks has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaksWWLDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MTK BudapestLWLDW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PaksMTK Budapest
66.7Attack62.5
29.2Defence41.7
45.8Form37.5
48.9Power48.5
2.35xG2.20