Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thailand · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pakistan 0-4 Thailand
Original prediction
Thailand
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 15.58 | 5.9% | 30.2% | 24.3 pts |
| Draw | 8.24 | 11.2% | 24.2% | 13.0 pts |
| Away | 1.11 | 82.9% | 45.6% | -37.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-37.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Thailand
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Thailand has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PakistanWWWDL
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ThailandDLLWW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PakistanThailand
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.49xG1.26