Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Pakhtakor are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Surkhon are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Pakhtakor hold a 25.4-point power-rating edge (68.4 v 42.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.2% in the Super League, while Pakhtakor holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
69.9%
Model confidence
16.2%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00