Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Pakhtakor are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Qizilqum are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Pakhtakor hold a 29.0-point power-rating edge (68.4 v 39.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.5% in the Super League, while Pakhtakor holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
73.9%
Model confidence
17.5%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80