Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pakhtakor 1-3 Neftchi
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.9% | 35.6% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 27.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.8% | 36.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PakhtakorDDWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
NeftchiLWLDW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PakhtakorNeftchi
59.7Attack77.8
69.4Defence70.8
73.6Form76.4
69.6Power73.4
1.11xG1.26