Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Pakhtakor 2-0 Bunyodkor, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pakhtakor 3-1 Bunyodkor
Original prediction
Pakhtakor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 18:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 77.6% | 71.5% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.31 | 14.5% | 17.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 11.54 | 7.9% | 10.8% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.1 pts
Projected Score
Pakhtakor 2–0 Bunyodkor
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
71.5%
Model confidence
71.5%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PakhtakorWDWWL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BunyodkorWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PakhtakorBunyodkor
59.1Attack33.3
69.7Defence45.5
74.2Form33.3
69.8Power40.2
2.26xG0.50