Paju Citizenvs
Hwaseong
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K League 2 · 10/25/2026, 7:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hwaseong · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Paju Citizen 0-1 Hwaseong, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Paju Citizen 1-1 Hwaseong
Original prediction
Hwaseong
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.47 | 20.4% | 24.1% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.9% | 28.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 54.7% | 47.9% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Projected Score
Paju Citizen 0–1 Hwaseong
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Hwaseong
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Hwaseong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Paju CitizenLDWDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
HwaseongLLDWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Paju CitizenHwaseong
32.1Attack51.2
59.3Defence63.1
37.0Form52.4
45.0Power56.8
0.73xG1.18