Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paide 2-0 Vaprus
Original prediction
Paide
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 62.8% | 65.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.6% | 18.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 16.6% | 16.3% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
65.3%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaideLWLWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VaprusLWWLD
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PaideVaprus
53.1Attack45.7
56.8Defence35.8
55.6Form42.0
56.8Power42.9
2.29xG1.04