Paidevs
Trans Narva
COMPLETEDEstonia · Meistriliiga · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 3-0 (14%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paide 2-1 Trans Narva
Original prediction
Paide
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.2% | 77.8% | 17.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.1% | 14.1% | -8.0 pts |
| Away | 5.05 | 17.7% | 8.1% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.3–014%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
77.8%
Model confidence
77.8%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaideWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Trans NarvaLDDLD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PaideTrans Narva
53.8Attack25.8
59.1Defence26.9
58.1Form21.5
58.5Power27.6
2.78xG0.56