Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paide 2-1 Tammeka
Original prediction
Paide
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 57.2% | 54.0% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.4% | 23.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 20.3% | 22.4% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaideLWWLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TammekaWWLLW
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
PaideTammeka
53.3Attack45.6
58.9Defence47.8
56.7Form52.2
57.8Power49.8
1.83xG1.01