Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paide 1-2 Laagri
Original prediction
Paide
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 57.4% | 60.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.6% | 20.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.50 | 19.9% | 19.0% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
60.8%
Model confidence
60.8%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaideWLWLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LaagriLLWWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PaideLaagri
53.8Attack46.9
57.7Defence43.2
57.7Form38.3
58.0Power44.0
2.06xG1.05