UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:09
Paide

Paide

Home
WD
30
Full time
Hegelmann Litauen

Hegelmann Litauen

Away
LD
Pärnu Rannastaadion
GoalVio prediction
42% confidence
Paide(42%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Paide
Win probability
Paide
42%
Draw
26%
Hegelmann Litauen
32%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Paide
73
Hegelmann Litauen
18
Defence
Paide
82
Hegelmann Litauen
27
Momentum
Paide
67
Hegelmann Litauen
17
Danger (xG)
Paide
1.80
Hegelmann Litauen
0.45
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Paide)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Hegelmann Litauen)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Paide)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Hegelmann Litauen)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
PaidePaide
WDDWL
Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen
LDLDW

Probability breakdown

42% confidence
Paide42%
Draw26%
Hegelmann Litauen32%

Paide leads with 42% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Paide head into this in UEFA Europa Conference League fixture at Pärnu Rannastaadion in mixed form (WD), while Hegelmann Litauen arrive in mixed form (LD). Paide have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Hegelmann Litauen over 2 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Paide's strong attack (73/100) faces a vulnerable Hegelmann Litauen defence (27/100), while Hegelmann Litauen's attack is up against a watertight Paide backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Paide's favour.

Paide have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game at home. Hegelmann Litauen have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per away game.

Paide have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 2 encounters, with 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Paide to win with 42% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Paide 4199%, Draw 2583%, Hegelmann Litauen 3218%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Paide 1Draws 10 Hegelmann Litauen
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS in 1/2
16 Jul 2026
Paide
W30
Hegelmann Litauen
9 Jul 2026
Paide
D11
Hegelmann Litauen

Recent form

Paide

Paide

W
vs Hegelmann Litauen
16 Jul 2026
30
D
@ Hegelmann Litauen
9 Jul 2026
11
D
@ Kalju Nomme
28 Jun 2026
11
W
@ Flora Tallinn
21 Jun 2026
21
L
vs FC Levadia Tallinn
17 May 2026
13
Hegelmann Litauen

Hegelmann Litauen

L
@ Paide
16 Jul 2026
03
D
vs Paide
9 Jul 2026
11
L
@ Banga
28 Jun 2026
02
D
vs Suduva Marijampole
16 May 2026
22
W
vs Džiugas Telšiai
23 Oct 2025
41

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?

GoalVio's model predicts Paide to win with 42% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more