Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Paide II are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Elva are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Elva hold a 12.8-point power-rating edge (41.4 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.1% in the Esiliiga A, while Elva holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 86% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20