Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pafos 1-1 Riga
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 59.0% | 36.4% | -22.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 23.3% | 25.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 5.31 | 17.6% | 38.6% | 20.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PafosDLWLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RigaWDWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PafosRiga
66.7Attack61.9
33.3Defence66.7
44.4Form71.4
49.5Power68.7
1.25xG1.83