Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pafos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pafos 0-2 AEL
Original prediction
Pafos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 67.8% | 47.4% | -20.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 20.0% | 25.6% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 7.48 | 12.2% | 26.9% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Pafos
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Pafos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PafosWDWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AELWLWWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PafosAEL
0.0Attack50.8
100.0Defence43.3
33.3Form45.0
45.3Power47.9
1.61xG1.27