Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paduano · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Paduano are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Macaé are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (WDWL), averaging 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Paduano hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 46.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.0% in the Carioca - 2, while Paduano holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Paduano
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Paduano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.50/1.50
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.50/0.75