Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Verona · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Padova are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Hellas Verona are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Hellas Verona hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (46.6 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the Serie B, while Hellas Verona holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Verona
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
14.8%
Verona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80