Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Padova are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Triestina are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 58.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00