Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Padova are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Pro Sesto are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 23.4-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 41.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.4% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80