Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Padova are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Novara are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.8% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
57.8%
Model confidence
57.8%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60