Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Padova are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Novara are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.8% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
57.8%
Model confidence
57.8%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40