Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Padova are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lumezzane are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 14.1-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.7% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80