Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Padova are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lecco are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Padova hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 44.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.2% in the Serie C - Girone A, while Padova holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
57.2%
Model confidence
57.2%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40