Pacos Ferreiravs
São João Ver
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pacos Ferreira · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pacos Ferreira 1-1 São João Ver
Original prediction
Pacos Ferreira
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 44.9% | 36.7% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.0% | 30.1% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 27.1% | 33.2% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Pacos Ferreira
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Pacos Ferreira has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20