Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pachuca W 1-2 Toluca W
Original prediction
Toluca W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.6% | 33.6% | -17.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.6% | 20.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.8% | 46.2% | 19.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Pachuca WWLLLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Toluca WWLWLW
GF 14 · GA 12 · avg 2.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Pachuca WToluca W
48.1Attack85.2
51.9Defence44.4
37.0Form70.4
46.3Power63.9
1.67xG2.38