Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pachuca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pachuca W 5-0 Necaxa W
Original prediction
Pachuca W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.01 | 95.4% | 84.1% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 30.46 | 3.2% | 10.1% | 7.0 pts |
| Away | 65.71 | 1.5% | 5.8% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Pachuca W
Probability
84.1%
Model confidence
84.1%
Pachuca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Pachuca WLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Necaxa WLLLLL
GF 0 · GA 24 · avg 0.00/4.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
Pachuca WNecaxa W
45.5Attack9.1
48.5Defence0.0
30.3Form0.0
42.3Power6.6
2.86xG0.76