Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pachuca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pachuca W 0-1 León W
Original prediction
Pachuca W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 61.0% | 40.1% | -20.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 20.8% | 22.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.94 | 18.3% | 37.7% | 19.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Pachuca W
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Pachuca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Pachuca WLLWWD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
León WWLWLL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Pachuca WLeón W
44.4Attack77.8
50.0Defence44.4
38.9Form50.0
45.8Power57.0
1.67xG2.02