Oxford Unitedvs
Burton Albion
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oxford United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oxford United 3-0 Burton Albion
Original prediction
Oxford United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.7% | 44.0% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.8% | 25.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.99 | 23.4% | 30.9% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Oxford United
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Oxford United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40