Oxford Cityvs
Morecambe
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oxford City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Oxford City 1-0 Morecambe, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Oxford City 1-1 Morecambe
Original prediction
Oxford City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.8% | 46.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.9% | 28.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.3% | 25.9% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Oxford City 1–0 Morecambe
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Oxford City
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Oxford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40