Oxford Cityvs
Merthyr Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/27/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oxford City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Oxford City 1-0 Merthyr Town, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Oxford City 3-0 Merthyr Town
Original prediction
Oxford City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.2% | 54.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.2% | 25.6% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 21.6% | 19.9% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Projected Score
Oxford City 1–0 Merthyr Town
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Oxford City
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Oxford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80