Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Oviedo 0-1 Eibar, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Oviedo 3-1 Eibar
Original prediction
Eibar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 39.6% | 27.6% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 30.3% | 28.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 30.1% | 43.7% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Projected Score
Oviedo 0–1 Eibar
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Eibar
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Eibar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OviedoLWLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EibarWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
OviedoEibar
33.3Attack75.0
66.7Defence70.8
45.8Form87.5
49.6Power78.2
0.69xG1.48