Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oviedo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Oviedo 1-0 Burgos, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Oviedo 0-0 Burgos
Original prediction
Oviedo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.1% | 45.0% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.8% | 29.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 22.1% | 25.5% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Projected Score
Oviedo 1–0 Burgos
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Oviedo
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Oviedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OviedoWLDWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BurgosDLWDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OviedoBurgos
42.0Attack66.7
70.3Defence33.3
51.4Form33.3
55.7Power45.3
1.34xG0.76