Ourense CFvs
Arosa
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ourense CF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ourense CF 0-0 Arosa
Original prediction
Ourense CF
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.7% | 44.1% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.4% | 27.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 24.9% | 28.8% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Ourense CF
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Ourense CF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80