Ossett Unitedvs
Pontefract Collieries
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ossett United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ossett United 1-0 Pontefract Collieries
Original prediction
Ossett United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.3% | 37.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 27.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.8% | 34.5% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Ossett United
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Ossett United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00