Ospitalettovs
Pergolettese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/18/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ospitaletto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ospitaletto 0-0 Pergolettese, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ospitaletto 2-3 Pergolettese
Original prediction
Ospitaletto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.7% | 50.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 27.8% | 31.1% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 21.5% | 18.8% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Projected Score
Ospitaletto 0–0 Pergolettese
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Ospitaletto
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Ospitaletto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60