Ospitalettovs
Cittadella
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ospitaletto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ospitaletto 0-1 Cittadella
Original prediction
Ospitaletto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.8% | 37.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.5% | 29.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.7% | 33.6% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Ospitaletto
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Ospitaletto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60