Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osogovo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osogovo 1-3 Belasica
Original prediction
Osogovo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.30 | 27.4% | 37.3% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.6% | 26.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 45.0% | 36.0% | -9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Osogovo
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Osogovo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OsogovoLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BelasicaDDWWW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
OsogovoBelasica
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form33.3
50.0Power45.3
2.14xG1.75