Osasunavs
Rayo Vallecano
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rayo Vallecano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
Original prediction
Rayo Vallecano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 37.0% | 35.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 29.1% | 25.2% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 33.9% | 39.4% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Rayo Vallecano
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Rayo Vallecano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60