Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osasuna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osasuna 1-0 Getafe
Original prediction
Osasuna
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 43.5% | 43.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 32.8% | 29.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 23.7% | 27.3% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Osasuna
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Osasuna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OsasunaWDLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GetafeLWWLD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OsasunaGetafe
33.3Attack16.7
83.3Defence50.0
66.7Form50.0
64.8Power42.7
1.47xG0.97