Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osasuna · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osasuna 0-2 Espanyol
Original prediction
Osasuna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 43.4% | 39.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.8% | 27.7% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 26.8% | 32.8% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Osasuna
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Osasuna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OsasunaLWWDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EspanyolDLLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OsasunaEspanyol
41.7Attack50.0
50.0Defence58.3
58.3Form33.3
53.0Power47.1
1.37xG1.26