Osasuna IIvs
Calamocha
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osasuna II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osasuna II 2-0 Calamocha
Original prediction
Osasuna II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.0% | 59.1% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.41 | 20.5% | 22.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 7.86 | 11.5% | 18.1% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Osasuna II
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Osasuna II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60