Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osaka 2-0 Nara Club
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.4% | 47.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.3% | 22.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.2% | 30.0% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OsakaLDLLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Nara ClubWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OsakaNara Club
57.6Attack66.7
63.6Defence51.5
51.5Form69.7
57.6Power64.1
1.75xG1.36