Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osaka 1-1 Kanazawa
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.2% | 55.7% | 12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.7% | 22.6% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 30.1% | 21.8% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OsakaLLWWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KanazawaWLWLD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
OsakaKanazawa
63.0Attack59.3
70.4Defence51.9
59.3Form48.1
63.9Power54.2
1.95xG0.97