Osakavs
Kagoshima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/24/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagoshima United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osaka 2-1 Kagoshima United
Original prediction
Kagoshima United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 29.6% | 35.5% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.9% | 26.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 42.5% | 38.4% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Kagoshima United
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Kagoshima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60